Signals
// EARLY-WARNING · ALWAYS FREE
Short, public pieces that track emerging patterns before they land in major reporting — one crisp finding, framed for fast reading. Always free.
A7A5: The Minus-One Rule
Russia's sanctioned stablecoin says its interest rate follows the central bank. We read all 358 postings on its ledger. It does, to the basis point. The next test comes Friday.
The Architecture of Evasion
1,931 vessels mapped by flag tier and classification society. The two-layer evasion structure visible across every tier of the fleet, and why Western enforcement keeps missing it.
The Coalition That Wasn't
The U.S. stopped designating shadow fleet vessels in January 2025. The EU kept going. A 549-vessel gap now defines what sanctions actually cover, and what the fleet operates inside of.