Analysis
// BRIEFS · DECODERS · SIGNALS · DISPATCHES
Evidence-based analysis across four formats. Briefs give you the landscape. Decoders show the underlying data. Signals surface short, public early-warning pieces. Dispatches are long-form investigative analysis.
A Kremlin-Backed Payments Network Shared a Dubai Address With Iran’s Arms Network
How Moscow's digital payments platform A7, Russia's shadow fleet brokers, and an Iranian oil-smuggling network became Dubai neighbors, and what it means as Washington extends its waiver to June 17.
The Wrong Question About Russian Oil
Washington's emergency crude waiver debate misses the point. The real question is what 65 days of licensed Russian oil flows built underneath — and whether that architecture can be dismantled at all.
Shadow Fleet Waiver Tracker
Every vessel, every waiver, every flag change across the 30-day window when Treasury paused enforcement. The full dataset behind the Iran-war surge in Russian seaborne oil.
Russia’s Shadow Fleet Didn’t Beat Sanctions. It Didn’t Have To
57 million barrels of Russian oil moved during the Iran war while Treasury paused enforcement. The fleet did not outrun sanctions. The coalition that built them walked off the field.
The Coalition That Wasn't
The U.S. stopped designating shadow fleet vessels in 2024. The EU kept going. A 549-vessel gap now defines what sanctions actually cover, and what the fleet operates inside of.
The Architecture of Evasion
1,931 vessels mapped by flag tier and classification society. The two-layer evasion structure visible across every tier of the fleet, and why Western enforcement keeps missing it.