Signal · Sanctions & Economic Statecraft · Free  ·  SIG-2026-003 · Jul 23, 2026

A7A5: The Minus-One Rule

Russia's sanctioned stablecoin makes many claims outsiders cannot check. Its interest rate is the exception: every payment is written on a public ledger. We read all 358 of them. The one promise anyone can verify has been kept, to the basis point, and the next test comes Friday.

The spread
−1.00
vs. Russia's key rate, five resets running
The lag
4–5 days
from each central bank decision to the token's reset
Feb 10, 2026
+8.2 pts
overnight rate jump, 6.8% to 15%
Paid today
13.25%
annual rate, credited daily since Jun 23
01 — Two rates, eighteen months · shared clock
20%15%10%5% Apr 25Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26 US sanctionsEU banGrinex collapse payout policy change Bank of Russia key rate A7A5 posted rate Jul 28?

The token paid 6 to 8 percent while Moscow's benchmark sat above 16. On Feb 10, 2026, one day after the issuer changed its payout policy, the posted rate jumped to 15 percent and began tracking the key rate at a fixed one-point discount. Shaded band: detail shown in Fig. 02. Rates from 358 on-chain interest postings; key rate from Bank of Russia decisions.

02 — Decision to reset, five times · Jan–Jul 2026 detail
JanFebMarAprMayJunJul BANK OF RUSSIA DECIDES A7A5 CONTRACT FOLLOWS Apr 16 Grinex collapse: no deviation standing rate 16.00 5d4d4d4d? 15.5015.0014.5014.25Jul 24? 15.00 14.5014.0013.5013.25 watch Jul 28

Every reset lands exactly 1.00 point below the new key rate, four to five days after the decision. All four 2026 decisions fell on Fridays; three of four resets landed the following Tuesday. Empty markers: the July 24 meeting and the posting we expect by July 28.

A7A5 is a digital token that stands in for the Russian ruble. It was built to move money for clients Western banks will not touch. The United States sanctioned its network on August 14, 2025, and the ledger records the aftershock: over the next three weeks the issuer zeroed out sanctioned wallets and reissued more than 80 percent of the token's supply to new addresses, a maneuver the Financial Times reported was designed to cut the wallet trail that enforcement teams follow. New minting stopped on September 2, 2025 and, on the Tron ledger we monitor, has never resumed. The European Union banned the token by name that October, effective November 25, and by late December the flows we track had reorganized into tight, repeating circuits through a small cluster of accounts. Its issuer, a company registered in Kyrgyzstan and banked at Promsvyazbank, the state lender that finances Russia's defense industry, publishes reassurances about audits and reserves that no outsider can check.

One claim is different. The issuer says holders earn interest at Russia's benchmark interest rate, the central bank's key rate, minus one percentage point. Interest arrives as a small credit to every holder's balance each business day, the way a bank posts interest to an old passbook account. And each credit is recorded on a public blockchain ledger that nobody, including the issuer, can edit after the fact. A company that cannot be audited from outside wrote one of its promises in permanent ink.

We read the full record: 358 interest postings since the token launched in January 2025. For the first year, the payments drifted between 6 and 8 percent annually while ruble deposits in Moscow paid 15 percent and more. Then, on February 10, 2026, one day after the issuer announced it would pass "nearly all income to holders," the posted rate jumped to 15 percent. The Bank of Russia has cut its key rate four times since. Each time, four to five days later, the token's rate stepped down to exactly one point below the new benchmark. Five settings, five matches, zero exceptions. The discipline held even in April, when the token's main exchange collapsed mid-cycle and the scheduled reset arrived anyway, on time and on formula.

Verifying the interest rate says nothing about the reserves; those claims remain unverifiable. It does establish something narrower and, for anyone tracking how Russia banks beyond the reach of sanctions, more useful: the payout desk of this instrument runs on Moscow's monetary policy, visibly, on a public ledger, at a fixed one-point margin.

The next test is on the calendar. The Bank of Russia meets Friday, July 24. If it cuts, the formula says the token's rate steps down about four days later, to exactly one point below the new rate. If it holds, the token should sit still at 13.25 percent. We will publish the result either way.

NOTE — Rate history read directly from the token's Tron smart contract: 358 interest events since Jan 31, 2025, replayed against the contract's own arithmetic and matched to live chain state. The minus-one formula is the issuer's published policy (docs.a7a5.io); the ledger record is our independent verification. The rate is entered manually by the operator each business day, and nothing on the blockchain compels the pattern to continue. The four-to-five-day reset lag is our measurement; the issuer does not disclose it. First-year figures are observed postings; the issuer's description of that period ("half of overnight income") is its own.
Full Access subscribers ($7/month) can read a more comprehensive analysis of A7A5 economics in our investigative Dispatch. Data Access subscribers ($80/year) can also export the underlying daily rate series and wallet panel.
SOURCE — Rate postings: A7A5 token contract, Tron blockchain (TLeVfrdym8…), Jan 31, 2025 – Jul 15, 2026. Formula and payout policy: issuer documentation. Key rate: Bank of Russia. Sanctions: U.S. Treasury, Aug 14, 2025; EU Council 19th package, adopted Oct 23, 2025, A7A5 prohibition effective Nov 25, 2025. Deposit-rate context: CBR monitoring of top-10 banks via TASS. Supply destruction and reissue, Aug–Sep 2025: Frontline Atlas ledger replay, corroborated by Financial Times reporting.
NOTE — Related: Shadow Fleet Waiver Tracker (Apr 2026), which traced the Baransky tanker cluster to Promsvyazbank, the same bank behind this token.
© 2026 Frontline Atlas · Independent. Not affiliated with any government or institutional funder.